With the recent advice from ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) for Irish fisheries highlighting concerns about stocks, we understand that there are extremely challenging times ahead for the seafood sector.
Ireland faces lower fishing opportunities in 2026, especially for pelagic species. Before negotiations conclude, the current reading of the scientific advice points to an overall drop in quota of about 29 per cent by volume compared with 2025. The direct first sale impact is estimated at €63 million.
Predicted demersal values are down by about 5 per cent. Pelagic value is down by an estimated 35 per cent, largely due to the advice on mackerel which sees a 70% reduction in quota. Pelagic fisheries underpin a substantial share of Ireland’s seafood economy and export earnings. In 2025, the refrigerated seawater (RSW) fleet generated around €100 million in first point of sale value. The pelagic value chain supports over 600 jobs directly across vessels and processing, and indirectly sustains many more in logistics, engineering, and coastal services.
The 2026 ICES advice recommends TAC reductions for key pelagic species, including mackerel, blue whiting, boarfish, and horse mackerel. The mackerel advice would reduce Ireland’s quota from 39,914 to an estimated 10,907 tonnes (without Hague Preferences), representing a potential value loss of around €48 million. The overall impact of these proposed changes represents a potential value loss of approximately €55 million across all pelagic species based on an average mackerel price of €1,660 per tonne. This loss could rise to about €58 million if current market prices above €2,000 per tonne prevail. Outcomes will depend on prices and the final Total Allowable Catch (TAC) and quota decisions following December Council.
Along with the mackerel fishery, Nephrops remains central to the profitability of the fishing sector. BIM will be paying close attention to this advice which is due out at the end of October to assess the economic impact of any reductions in their quota.
BIM and the Marine Institute will continue to support the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine and industry to secure the best possible negotiating outcome, support sustainable stocks, and reduce impacts on crews, processors, and coastal economies.